Demographic change and African water

Demographic change in Africa and impacts on water

Population in Africa is rapidly growing, and projected to grow in near future as well. According to the population projection by UN population Division (2015), African population will likely to be more than doubled (about 2.5 billion) in 2050 compared to 2015 (1.19 billions). Then by 2100, the population could have doubled again to 4.4 billion people (shown below in the graph).  

UN Medium-variant population projections in billions, from 2015 to 2100 (Graph produced with data from UNPD).

 Not only the huge number of people will be added to African population in near future, but also the rate of regional population change will be fastest in Africa; a growth by 108.87% in 2050, compared to 2015 population. 

Regional population change in percentage from 2015 to 2050, graph used data produced by UN Medium-Variant Population projection 2015. 

Such projected increasing trend can be a result of different factors combined, including dramatic improvement in infant mortality and life expectancy in Africa is expected, while high Birth Rate remains. 

     Some people suggests that such growing and relatively 'youthful' population in Africa can be an 'opportunity' for regional development, as Asia has experienced massive economic growth with increasing population before. However, many problems are also projected with such growing population, particularly related to water resources. 


Overall, many resources including water will face rapidly increasing demands from growing population in Africa. Demands will increase not only for domestic use, but also for agriculture, for food production as well. Agricultural water use generally accounts for 75% of total global consumption while industrial and domestic uses account for the rest (UNEP, 2008). As population increases in Africa, more food production will be needed to feed the growing population and this will likely lead to greater share of agricultural use in water consumption - even greater than now. The main issue will be how to meet such increasing demands in a relatively fast rate of growth - both in domestic and agricultural use (maybe even in industrial use as well to produce goods for larger population) - in Africa. 
     However, studies like Alcamo et al. (2007) implied that according to the analysis of socio-economic driving forces (from A2 and B2 IPCC sceanarios) on future global water stress, 
the most important factor affecting the growing water withdrawals for domestic use is actually stimulated by income growth, while population growth exerting a much less impact. 
         

     Additionally, the growing population will have impact on the land uses in Africa, since competing demands for subsistence farming, commercial agriculture and other developments are likely to increase massively (Financial Times, 2016). Larger population means greater demands for food, while many states trying to develop areas with development projects involving infrastructure building, and this will heavily determine the changes of land use/cover patterns in Africa. 


     Furthermore, population growth in Africa can increase vulnerability of the region to climate change, as indicated in the IPCC AR5 for Africa (Niang et al., 2014); "Climate change will interact with non-climate drivers .... to exacerbate vulnerability of agricultural systems, particularly in semi-arid areas (high confidence)". IPCC report investigated that the changes in precipitation and increasing temperature is happening as a result of climate change and it is highly likely to reduce cereal crop productivity. Thus, it could have negative effects on food security, along with increased vulnerability from population growth. For example, lack of precipitation over several seasons and extreme climate events in the Horn of Africa like Somalia, have left humanitarian crisis including UN's declaration of 'famine zones'. This has been aggravated by factors like rapid population growth, compounding their vulnerability to adapt or mitigate the impacts of climate change. 


As illustrated above, demographic change in Africa is in a rapid progress and is affecting diverse aspects of African environment. Although it may seem like it is not directly related to water systems in Africa, it can exert huge impacts on issues like land use/covers and vulnerability against climate change - which can influence water systems in Africa massively. Hence, it can be effective to examine the association and extent of impacts of population on different issues related to Africa water. 


*Just to mention, population projections always involve limitations in its measurements, and in UN 'Medium-Variant population projection' used in the graphs above assumes that the global average fertility rate will fall from 2.5 children per woman (2015) to 2.4 (around 2030) and eventually 2.0 in 2100. Also, population projections likely to change even between few years, for example shown in the graph below:

Graph comparing UN world population projections between 2012 and 2015. 

Medium-Variant projections of world population have changed between 2012 and 2015, and this may due to different factors such as changes in investment or policies on reproductive health and family planning, migration, time commitment and cost of raising children affecting the fertility rates. However it also involves various factors that could change the projection figures significantly.